The QuantK Tactical

Non-options momentum rotation strategy for comparison. Rotates across 8 asset classes (US stocks, international, bonds, commodities) based on trend signals. Demonstrates how wheel strategies compare to tactical approaches.

DBC EEM EFA GLD HYG QQQ SPY TLT
-2.3%
Total Return (Oct 2025 – Present)
$9,769
Current NAV
$86
Income YTD
2.6%
Ann. Yield
Win Rate
0.4%
Max Drawdown

Portfolio Summary

Systematic momentum rotation across 8 asset classes

GLD
$12,498
+24.98%
DBC
$11,227
+12.27%
EEM
$11,138
+11.38%
EFA
$10,896
+8.96%
SPY
$10,382
+3.82%
QQQ
$10,322
+3.22%
HYG
$10,165
+1.65%
TLT
$9,866
-1.34%
Strategy

The QuantK Tactical portfolio employs a diversified multi-asset tactical rotation strategy, allocating capital across commodities, equities, bonds, and precious metals to capture opportunities across market cycles. The approach balances growth exposure through emerging markets and tech (EEM, QQQ) with defensive positioning in treasuries, high-yield bonds, and gold. With minimal concentration in any single holding, the strategy appears designed to generate returns while managing volatility through broad diversification.

Why Tactical Rotation?

Markets trend. This portfolio follows momentum, rotating monthly into the top 4 ETFs that pass both a trend filter and momentum ranking. The goal: capture upside in rising assets, avoid falling knives, and let systematic rules remove emotion.

Inspired by @Quant_Kurtis

$10,000 Investment Growth (2025)

How each holding would perform with equal $10K allocation

GLD
$12,498
+25.0%
DBC
$11,227
+12.3%
EEM
$11,138
+11.4%
EFA
$10,896
+9.0%
SPY
$10,382
+3.8%
QQQ
$10,322
+3.2%
HYG
$10,165
+1.7%
TLT
$9,866
-1.3%
GLD
$12,498
DBC
$11,227
EEM
$11,138
EFA
$10,896
SPY
$10,382
QQQ
$10,322
HYG
$10,165
TLT
$9,866
Key Insight

GLD leads with a 25.0% return, turning $10,000 into $12,498. The portfolio balances growth-oriented and income-focused ETFs for diversified returns.

Maximum Drawdown Analysis

Protection ratings during market downturns

ETF Strategy Max Drawdown Worst Month Beta Protection
HYG High-Yield Bonds -1.2% Oct 25 0.70 ●●●●●
TLT Long-Term Treasury -4.9% Feb 26 2.34 ●●●●○
SPY S&P 500 Index -5.1% Nov 25 1.00 ●●●●○
EEM Emerging Markets -5.2% Nov 25 0.98 ●●●●○
EFA Int'l Developed -5.5% Nov 25 1.02 ●●●●○
DBC Commodities -7.0% Feb 26 0.88 ●●●○○
QQQ Nasdaq 100 Index -7.9% Nov 25 1.15 ●●○○○
GLD Gold -13.9% Feb 26 0.51 ●●○○○
Best Protection

HYG showed the strongest downside protection with only a -1.2% maximum drawdown and a 0.70 beta.

Deepest Drawdown

GLD experienced the largest drawdown at -13.9%, though still modest compared to broad market indices.

March 2025 Stress Test

How each ETF performed during the worst month:

HYG
-1.2%
TLT
-4.9%
SPY
-5.1%
EEM
-5.2%
EFA
-5.5%
DBC
-7.0%
QQQ
-7.9%
GLD
-13.9%

Current Holdings

Top 4 momentum leaders as of last rebalance

GLD
+46.2%
6-mo momentum
EEM
+21.5%
6-mo momentum
EFA
+16.4%
6-mo momentum
QQQ
+7.0%
6-mo momentum
Next Rebalance Mar 2, 2026

Momentum Rankings

All 8 ETFs ranked by 6-month return with dual trend filter

Rank ETF 6-Mo Return Price 200-SMA Trend Filter Status
1 GLD +46.2% $453.97 $349.54 PASS HELD
2 EEM +21.5% $58.80 $50.75 PASS HELD
3 EFA +16.4% $101.78 $90.63 PASS HELD
4 DBC +14.9% $24.19 $21.76 PASS HELD
5 SPY +9.1% $686.19 $640.68 PASS
6 QQQ +7.0% $605.75 $575.04 PASS
7 HYG +3.3% $80.62 $78.35 PASS
8 TLT +0.7% $86.54 $86.26 PASS
Dual Trend Filter: Price must be above 200-day SMA AND 6-month return must be positive. Top 4 passers are held.

Rotation History

Monthly rebalancing decisions

Date Action Out In Holdings After
Jan 2, 2026 Rotate SPY EFA GLD EEM EFA QQQ
Dec 2, 2025 Hold GLD QQQ EEM SPY
Nov 2, 2025 Hold QQQ EEM SPY GLD
Oct 2, 2025 Initial QQQ EEM SPY GLD QQQ EEM SPY GLD

Monthly Returns Heatmap

Month-by-month performance tracking

Month Portfolio DBC EEM EFA GLD HYG QQQ SPY TLT
Oct 2025 -9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oct 2025 0.0% -0.7% +0.5% +0.2% -0.4% 0.0% +0.4% +0.1% +0.3%
Oct 2025 +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.8% +0.8% -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% -0.2%
Oct 2025 +0.5% +1.0% +0.5% +0.2% +1.9% 0.0% +0.8% +0.4% -0.8%
Oct 2025 -0.1% +0.4% -0.8% -0.9% +0.5% -0.1% -0.5% -0.4% +0.6%
Oct 2025 +0.6% +0.1% +0.8% +0.3% +1.7% -0.1% +1.1% +0.6% +0.1%
Oct 2025 -0.7% -0.9% -1.0% -0.8% -1.8% -0.3% -0.1% -0.3% -0.1%
Oct 2025 -1.4% -2.1% -3.7% -1.8% +1.0% -0.6% -3.5% -2.7% +1.6%
Oct 2025 +1.4% +1.3% +2.9% +0.8% +2.4% +0.6% +2.1% +1.5% -0.1%
Oct 2025 -0.2% -1.1% -0.9% +0.4% +0.7% +0.1% -0.7% -0.1% +0.3%
Oct 2025 +0.7% +0.4% +1.6% +0.5% +1.7% +0.3% +0.7% +0.4% -0.2%
Oct 2025 +0.4% -0.2% +0.7% +0.5% +2.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% +0.8%
Oct 2025 -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% +0.2% -1.9% +0.3% +0.7% +0.6% -0.1%
Oct 2025 +1.2% +1.0% +1.4% +0.8% +3.6% +0.2% +1.3% +1.0% +0.4%
Oct 2025 -1.2% -1.0% -1.1% -0.7% -6.4% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% +0.5%
Oct 2025 0.0% +1.6% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -1.0% -0.5% +0.1%
Oct 2025 +0.5% +1.7% +0.9% +0.5% +0.4% +0.2% +0.8% +0.6% -0.7%
Oct 2025 +0.3% 0.0% +0.7% +0.2% -0.3% +0.3% +1.1% +0.8% 0.0%
Oct 2025 +0.3% -0.2% +1.1% +0.7% -2.8% +0.2% +1.8% +1.2% +0.3%
Oct 2025 -0.1% -0.9% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.1% +0.8% +0.3% +0.3%
Oct 2025 -0.1% +0.5% +0.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.3% +0.4% +0.1% -1.0%
Oct 2025 -0.4% 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% +2.0% -0.2% -1.5% -1.1% -0.6%
Oct 2025 0.0% +0.7% -0.2% -0.2% -0.5% 0.0% +0.5% +0.3% -0.3%
Nov 2025 +0.2% +0.7% +0.6% 0.0% +0.2% -0.3% +0.5% +0.2% -0.2%
Nov 2025 -1.0% -0.7% -1.8% -1.0% -1.8% 0.0% -2.0% -1.2% +0.2%
Nov 2025 +0.3% -0.3% +0.9% +0.6% +1.2% +0.1% +0.7% +0.4% -1.1%
Nov 2025 -0.3% +0.1% -0.7% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% -1.9% -1.1% +0.9%
Nov 2025 +0.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.4% +0.6% +0.1% -0.3% +0.1% -0.2%
Nov 2025 +1.3% +1.1% +1.8% +1.1% +2.7% +0.3% +2.2% +1.6% 0.0%
Nov 2025 +0.3% +0.7% +0.1% +0.7% +0.4% +0.1% -0.3% +0.2% +0.5%
Nov 2025 +0.1% -1.1% 0.0% +0.6% +1.6% -0.2% -0.1% +0.1% +0.2%
Nov 2025 -1.0% -0.5% -1.2% -1.1% -0.8% -0.4% -2.0% -1.7% -0.8%
Nov 2025 -0.3% +0.2% +0.1% -0.3% -1.8% 0.0% +0.1% 0.0% -0.6%
Nov 2025 -0.7% -0.1% -1.2% -1.3% -1.1% -0.2% -0.9% -0.9% +0.2%
Nov 2025 -0.3% +0.8% -0.5% -1.3% +0.7% 0.0% -1.2% -0.8% 0.0%
Nov 2025 -0.1% -1.0% -0.4% -0.3% +0.2% +0.1% +0.6% +0.4% -0.2%
Nov 2025 -0.9% -1.0% -1.4% -1.4% 0.0% -0.1% -2.4% -1.5% +0.4%
Nov 2025 +0.3% -0.7% 0.0% +1.6% -0.1% +0.3% +0.8% +1.0% +0.3%
Nov 2025 +1.0% +0.5% +1.1% +0.1% +1.6% +0.3% +2.6% +1.5% +0.6%
Nov 2025 +0.4% -0.5% +0.4% +1.2% 0.0% +0.4% +0.6% +0.9% +0.3%
Nov 2025 +0.7% +1.1% +0.7% +1.1% +0.8% +0.1% +0.9% +0.7% +0.4%
Nov 2025 +0.5% +1.3% +0.1% +0.3% +1.2% +0.1% +0.8% +0.5% -0.5%
Dec 2025 -0.2% +0.3% -0.1% -0.5% +0.5% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -1.2%
Dec 2025 +0.1% -0.4% 0.0% +0.3% -0.6% +0.2% +0.8% +0.2% +0.1%
Dec 2025 +0.2% +0.5% +0.1% +0.5% -0.1% +0.1% +0.2% +0.4% +0.3%
Dec 2025 0.0% +0.3% 0.0% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% -0.1% +0.1% -0.5%
Dec 2025 +0.2% +0.6% +0.8% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% +0.4% +0.2% -0.5%
Dec 2025 -0.4% -1.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3%
Dec 2025 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% +0.5% -0.1% +0.1% -0.1% +0.1%
Dec 2025 +0.6% +0.6% +1.1% +1.1% +0.4% +0.3% +0.4% +0.7% +0.4%
Dec 2025 +0.1% -0.1% -0.5% +0.6% +1.1% 0.0% -0.3% +0.2% -0.1%
Dec 2025 -0.8% -0.8% -1.2% -0.5% +0.6% -0.2% -1.9% -1.1% -1.0%
Dec 2025 -0.1% -0.5% -0.3% +0.6% +0.1% +0.1% -0.5% -0.1% +0.1%
Dec 2025 -0.2% -1.0% -0.6% -0.5% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.5%
Dec 2025 -0.3% +1.2% -0.7% -0.8% +0.9% -0.1% -1.8% -1.1% -0.1%
Dec 2025 +0.5% -0.7% +1.1% +0.7% -0.2% +0.3% +1.5% +0.8% +0.5%
Dec 2025 +0.5% +0.7% +1.0% +0.7% +0.1% -0.1% +1.3% +0.9% -0.4%
Dec 2025 +0.7% +1.3% +0.5% +0.2% +2.3% +0.1% +0.5% +0.6% -0.2%
Dec 2025 +0.6% +1.1% +0.6% +0.6% +1.3% +0.1% +0.5% +0.5% +0.2%
Dec 2025 +0.2% 0.0% +0.2% +0.1% -0.4% +0.2% +0.3% +0.4% +0.6%
Dec 2025 +0.3% +0.3% +0.7% +0.2% +1.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3%
Dec 2025 -0.8% -0.9% -0.3% -0.3% -4.3% 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% +0.4%
Dec 2025 +0.1% +0.7% +0.4% +0.2% +0.1% +0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2%
Dec 2025 -0.6% -1.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -0.1% -0.8% -0.7% -0.8%
Jan 2026 +0.6% +0.1% +2.8% +1.1% +0.5% +0.1% -0.2% +0.2% -0.1%
Jan 2026 +1.1% +1.9% +1.1% +1.1% +2.6% +0.3% +0.8% +0.7% +0.5%
Jan 2026 +0.4% 0.0% +0.7% +0.1% +1.1% 0.0% +0.9% +0.6% -0.2%
Jan 2026 -0.3% -0.9% -0.8% -0.4% -1.0% 0.0% +0.1% -0.3% +0.6%
Jan 2026 +0.1% +1.3% 0.0% 0.0% +0.5% +0.1% -0.6% 0.0% -0.5%
Jan 2026 +0.6% +0.1% +0.5% +0.9% +0.7% +0.1% +1.0% +0.7% +0.7%
Jan 2026 +0.7% +1.3% +1.4% +0.6% +1.9% +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% -0.3%
Jan 2026 -0.1% +0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% +0.2%
Jan 2026 +0.2% +0.1% +0.4% +0.5% +1.0% 0.0% -1.1% -0.5% +0.6%
Jan 2026 -0.1% -0.8% +0.6% 0.0% -0.6% 0.0% +0.4% +0.3% 0.0%
Jan 2026 -0.2% -0.2% -0.4% +0.3% -0.5% +0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.6%
Jan 2026 -0.3% +1.4% -1.0% -1.5% +3.8% -0.3% -2.1% -2.0% -1.3%
Jan 2026 +1.1% +1.1% +1.7% +1.0% +1.5% +0.3% +1.4% +1.1% +0.8%
Jan 2026 +0.6% 0.0% +0.8% +0.4% +1.8% +0.1% +0.7% +0.5% +0.4%
Jan 2026 +0.7% +1.8% +0.6% +0.5% +1.4% -0.1% +0.3% 0.0% +0.3%
Jan 2026 +0.5% +0.4% +0.2% +0.5% +1.5% +0.1% +0.4% +0.5% +0.5%
Jan 2026 +1.1% +1.4% +2.0% +1.6% +2.5% 0.0% +0.9% +0.4% -0.6%
Jan 2026 +0.7% +1.3% +0.7% -1.1% +3.9% -0.2% +0.3% 0.0% -0.2%
Jan 2026 +0.2% +1.4% -0.5% +0.7% +0.3% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% 0.0%
Jan 2026 -2.7% -3.4% -2.2% -0.9% -10.3% +0.1% -1.2% -0.3% -0.6%
Feb 2026 -1.0% -3.6% +0.3% +0.7% -4.0% -0.4% +0.7% +0.5% -0.7%
Feb 2026 +1.0% +2.6% +0.5% +0.1% +6.4% -0.1% -1.5% -0.9% +0.2%
Feb 2026 +2.3% +1.2% -0.8% -0.7% -2.1% +0.5% +0.9% +0.4% +0.4%
TOTAL +0.7% +12.1% +11.2% +8.8% +24.2% +1.7% +3.7% +4.0% -1.2%
Best Month
+2.3%
Feb 2026
Worst Month
-9.6%
Oct 2025
Positive Months
54/87
months positive

Key Takeaways

Winners

  • Gold (GLD) is the standout performer at +25.0% return, capitalizing on safe-haven demand and currency weakness. Commodities (DBC) and emerging markets (EEM) also delivered strong double-digit returns (+12.3% and +11.4%), benefiting from inflation hedging and cyclical recovery themes. High-yield bonds (HYG) are providing solid income at 5.72% yield despite modest price appreciation.

Disappointments

  • Long-duration treasuries (TLT) are the only negative performer at -1.3%, reflecting the portfolio's sensitivity to rising rate expectations—a structural headwind for bond-heavy allocations. Technology exposure through QQQ (+3.2%) and broad equities through SPY (+3.8%) are significantly underperforming commodities and EM, suggesting late or incomplete participation in equity market strength. The portfolio's 0% total return despite positive constituent returns suggests potential entry timing or rebalancing inefficiencies.
The thesis:

This is a defensive-leaning tactical allocation designed for moderate risk-adjusted returns through diversification rather than conviction bets. With a strong Sharpe ratio of 3.46 and minimal drawdown (0.4%), the portfolio prioritizes capital preservation and steady income generation over aggressive growth. The risk/reward profile is balanced but unexciting—investors should expect mid-single-digit returns with lower volatility, making it suitable for conservative tacticians but potentially underperforming in sustained bull markets.

Analysis updated 22 hours, 44 minutes ago